Anyone paying even a bit of attention to the markets over the past few months knows we’re in a good news is bad news and bad news is good news type of situation — at least when it comes to economic data and monetary policy.
Stocks have sold off on positive economic reports, such as Friday’s stronger-than-expected June jobs numbers, and rallied on signs of economic weakness. Of course, the reason behind this is that traders think the Federal Reserve is more likely to step in with an interest rate cut in the face of a weakening economy.
What the Fed will do is impossible to know until the Fed actually does it. But this hasn’t stopped traders from hanging onto every sentence uttered by Federal Reserve Board members in hopes of gaining some insight into the central bank’s next move.
And they’ll have plenty to parse today when the big kahuna himself, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, testifies before Congress. What Powell says (or doesn’t say) is very likely to move markets, possibly in a big way.
One could say you have two choices. The first is to sit out until we know what Powell says and how markets react.
If you know me at all, I’m sure you can guess that I’m going with option No. 2, since I am not one to sit on the sidelines!
Given this, let’s turn to the charts to see what they are telling us. Below is a year-to-date chart of SPY, the ETF that tracks the S&P 500:
Right now, it is very clear to me that $297 is the most important level to watch.
The ETF managed to close above it Tuesday, finishing the day at $297.23. But we will need to see whether it can hold it in today’s trading. If it does, SPY could make a run for $300.
While that $3 move might not sound overly exciting to stock traders, it should be plenty to get option traders going. With the leverage of call options, a $3 move up in SPY could easily translate into triple-digit percentage returns.
But SPY doesn’t need to go up for us to bank those kinds of gains. We could just as easily make money on the downside with put options. If $297 fails to hold, SPY could revisit a previous trading range by dropping to $295 or possibly even lower. Even a $2 drop would be plenty to make some serious cash with the right option.
And there’s the rub, folks — the right option.
If you’re looking to trade SPY on a given day, there are hundreds of different options you could buy across all different expirations and strikes. And given you have the choice between calls and puts, that doubles your options (pardon the pun).
That’s where I come in. I narrow down those hundreds of options into a single one that I think is the absolute best trade for that day.
Aptly enough, it’s known as my Trade of the Day, and it’s been killing it lately. In fact, we’ve enjoyed a 52-trade win streak in which every Trade of the Day could have made you money. (And that’s not even my longest win streak!)
I deliver the Trade of the Day 30 minutes prior to the market open, along with a detailed chart, an explanation for why I chose that particular option, and important support and resistance levels to watch throughout the day. It’s basically everything you need to profit that day in one short text and email.
And it’s not too late to get into today’s trade. If you sign up here, you can start trading with me in the next few hours.
But today I’ve done something out of the ordinary and unique. Questions? Want to see my charts? You don’t want to miss my next trade, that’s for sure, but in the meantime… here’s a free video.
America’s #1 Premarket Trader,